![]() ![]() On the one hand, lockdown measures have restricted what consumers can spend their money on, due to air travel suspended, restaurants and shops being shut or subject to measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In Q3 2020, consumer spending is estimated to have remained below the pre-pandemic levels in most countries (with China being a notable exception).Yet, prospects for real GDP to return to pre-pandemic levels before mid-2021 remain distant for most countries due to a further wave of COVID-19 infections, risks of further lockdowns, closed borders and high indebtedness. Source: Box Office Mojo Long and bumpy road to recovery elsewhereĬhina’s recovery will benefit the global economy at large – for example, Germany’s automotive industry is enjoying resurgent car sales in China. On the National Day weekend (2-4 October), there were 7 new releases and box office revenues rose 761% year-on-year.Ĭhina Change in Box Office Revenues Weekends during 3 January – 18 October 2020 Over the three-day (Friday-Sunday) weekend of 28-30 August which coincided with Chinese Valentine’s Day, there were 11 new releases and box office revenues rose by 1,041% over a year earlier. In a sign of consumer activity returning to normal, China’s box office revenues (in nominal terms) have increased compared to a year earlier, despite a 75% capacity limit in cinemas across the country.According to official statistics, real GDP in Q3 2020 rose 4.9% over the same period of the previous year, well ahead of the 3.1% year-on-year growth recorded in Q2. China represents an important leading signal for the speed and trajectory of the global economy and so it is encouraging to see China’s economic recovery amid persisting challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic.Euromonitor’s Recovery Index score for China is estimated to have reached 102.4 in Q3 2020, compared to 98.8 recorded in Q2 (an index score of 100 indicates a full recovery to the pre-pandemic level of 2019).Having suffered the pandemic’s blow earlier than other countries, and having subsequently stemmed the spread of the virus, China is the first major economy to see its real economic output, labour market, and consumer spending rebound fully to pre-pandemic levels, as of Q3 2020: With further local waves of COVID-19 infection undermining efforts to return to normal, business and consumer confidence are shaken, and with little scope for further fiscal and monetary stimulus, most countries will have a long way to go before their output, labour market, and consumer spending return to pre-pandemic levels.Ĭhina is the first major economy to have recovered Nevertheless, with China being a notable exception, economies have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels of 2019. In this context, Euromonitor International has developed the Global Recovery Tracker and Recovery Index to help businesses track and predict when activity in key markets will recover so as to plan their strategy accordingly.Īs of Q3 2020, all of the 48 countries covered by Euromonitor’s Recovery Index are expected to have recorded improved recovery index scores compared to the previous quarter when many countries were under strict lockdowns. Businesses are operating in a world of anxieties and uncertainties, not knowing what will be the new normal or when output and consumer spending will rebound to pre-crisis levels. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered the most severe global recession in nearly a century. ![]()
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